Trump’s Gives Away the Venezuelan Game on Fox News: Nobody Can Stop Us…
Trump on China: “There’s not gonna be a problem. They’re gonna get oil. We’re gonna allow people to have oil … nobody can stop us.”
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) January 3, 2026 at 9:59 AM
Cole called and asked if I’d do an explainer post on Venezuela. Of course when he called Rosie was racked out on me getting scritched while snoozing. I’m going to just run through some basics because some folks decided to ping me beginning around 2:15 AM to see if I’d seen the news, what I thought of the news, and/or what I thought was really going on. The answer was basically I have now. I finally fell back asleep around 8:00 AM and the next round of texts began about 9:00 AM. The two heaping tablespoons, which was probably around four actual tablespoons, of culinary grade matcha mixed with almond milk, ten in one mushroom powder (the stuff for immunity and mental focus, not the stuff to get stoned), and marine collagen that I shotgunned to be awake enough to do anything has begun to wear off and I need a nap. So let’s get started.
What: Early this morning US Special Operations Forces (SOF) invaded Venezuela and scarfed up Maduro and his wife. This is after, based on the news reporting, we struck the Minister of Defense’s home. Basically a combo decapitation strike using air power and a snatch and grab using SOF operators. I am not going to speculate on which SOF echelon they were from because 1) we may never know and 2) most of what everyone thinks they know about SOF’s Tier 1 operators, who they are, what they do, and which ones do it where is not always accurate. Which actually suits US SOF and often makes goos operational security sense. Anyhow, the rotary wing craft – the Blackhawks and Chinooks – were for the snatch and grab. Reporting also indicates we blew up Chavez’s mausoleum, so you can add desecrating a grave to your war crimes score sheet for those playing along at home.
Why: The why is a bit more complicated. Lil Narco (my brother in law is a convicted coke trafficker) Rubio has had a theory for the better part of a decade that if you can topple the Venezuelan government, then the Cuban government will quickly fall. There’s no actual logic, rhyme, nor reason behind this, but Lil Narco believes it and he was never the sharpest knife in the wooden chopstick drawer.
The better explanation is that Stephen Miller needs an actual war with Venezuela so that he can order the DOJ and DHS to make another run at using the Alien Enemies Act to justify his anti-immigrant and anti-anyone who looks like an immigrant pogroms. From The New York Times reporting on 27 DEC 2025:
Mr. Miller told officials that if the United States and Venezuela were at war, the Trump administration could again invoke the Alien Enemies Act, an 18th-century law, to expedite deportations of hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans the administration stripped of temporary protected status. He and Mr. Rubio had used it earlier in the year to summarily deport hundreds of Venezuelans to a notorious prison in El Salvador, only to be stopped by court rulings.
Mr. Miller told White House officials in the spring to explore ways to attack drug cartels around their home countries in Latin America. Mr. Miller wanted attacks that could draw widespread attention to create a deterrent.
This is why of the five people behind Trump at his press conference this morning, only one was not a constitutional officer – nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate – and that person was Stephen Miller. He’s not supposed to have this kind of power as a Deputy White House Chief of Staff, but as long as Trump backs him up, Miller’s running the show.
Despite Trump’s assertions, the Vice President of Venezuela does not appear to be on board with the idea that she’s now Trump’s person in Caracas:
VP Delcy Rodriguez, whom Trump indicated earlier today was collaborating with the US government, is live on television right now.
Earlier reports that she’s in Russia are false. She’s in Caracas with the rest of the cabinet.
Rodriguez: “We will never again be a colony for any empire”
— Giancarlo Fiorella (@giancarlofiorella.bsky.social) January 3, 2026 at 2:17 PM
Rodriguez: “We demand the immediate release of our President, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife Cilia Flores”
Rodriguez says that Maduro is still the President of Venezuela.
— Giancarlo Fiorella (@giancarlofiorella.bsky.social) January 3, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Rodriguez: “We are ready to defend Venezuela. We are ready to defend our natural resources, which should aid our national development”
Rodriguez does not sound like she’s willing to be a US puppet, which is what Trump suggested earlier today.
— Giancarlo Fiorella (@giancarlofiorella.bsky.social) January 3, 2026 at 2:19 PM
Rodriguez: “Together, the Venezuelan people will find a peaceful way forward. Those who use violence and violate international law are in the wrong (…) We call on other nations to stand united, because what happened today in Venezuela can happen anywhere”
— Giancarlo Fiorella (@giancarlofiorella.bsky.social) January 3, 2026 at 2:21 PM
Rodriguez ends her speech, appearing on television for the first time since President Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores were kidnapped this morning.
Rodriguez appeared alongside other members of the PSUV cabinet, including Diosdado Cabello, Tarek William Saab, and Vladimir Padrino Lopez.
— Giancarlo Fiorella (@giancarlofiorella.bsky.social) January 3, 2026 at 2:22 PM
Rodriguez’s main messages were that Maduro is still President of Venezuela, and that the government will not yield to the US’ attempt to take over its oil resources.
Again, no indication at all that she’s collaborating with Washington, which Trump indicated was the case earlier today.
— Giancarlo Fiorella (@giancarlofiorella.bsky.social) January 3, 2026 at 2:24 PM
A point regarding the oil: the oil was the hook that Miller and Rubio needed to get Trump to go for this. It’s what a good chunk of the Monroe Doctrine or the Trump corollary/revision to the Monroe Doctrine in the 2025 National Security Strategy were about. This is being sold to Trump as there’s money to be made – read that as money he can pocket – from Venezuela’s petroleum industry. This is a lie. Venezuela’s oil is exceedingly low/poor quality. It makes the Canadian tar sands look good. It is extremely hard to refine and no US company is going to throw good money or any other resource away trying to bring Venezuela’s petroleum infrastructure up to 21st century specs because there’s no way to recover those costs, let alone make a profit, unless oil goes above $100 a barrel again. And even then it probably isn’t profitable.
Someone also had insider info of what was coming.
This person went on a buying spree over the past 24 hours. Fresh wallet. Only existed since Dec 27th and has only bet on Venezuela-related markets.
polymarket.com/@0x31a56e9E6…
— egg price watcher (@bluser12.bsky.social) January 3, 2026 at 2:49 AM
They’re the top holder of “yes” Maduro out by Jan 31. There’s also Feb 28th, Mar 31st etc. But they went with shortest dated contract.
— egg price watcher (@bluser12.bsky.social) January 3, 2026 at 2:58 AM
They spent $32,537.28 and made $404,222.33. Most of the buys were made within the past 24 hours.
Not bad for an honest day’s work.
— egg price watcher (@bluser12.bsky.social) January 3, 2026 at 11:18 AM
Either someone leaked this to someone so they could profit or someone involved with the planning, which, given this involved planners at JSOC and SOUTHCOM, as well as coordination with NORTHCOM and SOCOM, the Joint Staff, the Joint Chiefs, Secretary Violent Drunk Walking Zipper Malfunction’s office, the Intel Community, the National Security Staff/National Security Council, and Stephen Miller’s shop is A LOT of people, it could be anyone of any rank. Either way it is poor Operational Security.
The EU isn’t going to be much use:
I have spoken with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and our Ambassador in Caracas. The EU is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela.
The EU has repeatedly stated that Mr Maduro lacks legitimacy and has defended a peaceful transition. (1/2)
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas.bsky.social) January 3, 2026 at 6:03 AM
Under all circumstances, the principles of international law and the UN Charter must be respected. We call for restraint.
The safety of EU citizens in the country is our top priority. (2/2)
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas.bsky.social) January 3, 2026 at 6:03 AM
Finally, the US military does not have the ability/capability to administrate Venezuela. The folks we would use to for this sort of thing are Civil Affairs (CA). The vast majority are in the US Army – Military Occupational Specialty 38 (38 MOS) and about 90% of those Soldiers are in the Reserve and National Guard. The Navy and Marines have the rest. We don’t have enough of these Soldiers, Sailors, or Marines on a good day because we continually, shortsightedly, and ignorantly underinvest in Civil Affairs. Within US Army Civil Affairs is a sub-MOS, 38G/Military Support to Government, which are supposed to be the real specialists in having to step in and reestablish government functions. Unfortunately, that MOS was never fully built out, was allowed to wither on the vine for years, and has essentially been frozen in terms of ascensions for the past several years. Full disclosure: I was the Senior Advisor to the Chief of Civil Affairs Branch from OCT 2012 through DEC 2013 and helped to develop the 38G concept.
To sum up:
- The US has illegally attacked Venezuela, kidnapped, and renditioned its president and his wife to New York for trial.
- Trump has claimed that the Venezuelan Vice President will be running things under US command and control.
- The Venezuelan Vice President denies this and has issued a defiant statement.
- I didn’t mention it above, but the far left ELN paramilitary has pledged to defend the Venezuelan state, so we’ve got one win in that we’re reconciling Venezuela’s factions (that was sarcasm)
- This is all to give Stephen Miller the ability to try to have DOJ and DHS reinvoke the Alien Enemies Act so he can turbocharge, ramp up, and expand his anti-immigrant and anti-anyone who looks like an immigrant pogroms.
- Lil Narco thinks this will bring down the Cuban government. It will not do so.
- I’ve seen no reporting on or anyone even asking about where the Russian general Putin sent to Venezuela back in November, as well as his train, advise, and assist soldiers are and what they’re up to.
- Similarly, I’ve seen no reporting on or anyone even asking about where the Russian mercenaries (PMC) formerly known as Wagner, which have been operating under cover of being a professional security company in Venezuela and the region since at least 2023 are.
I’ll be back later this evening for the regular Ukraine war update.
Open thread!
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