Climate change is very close to its 1.5°C flashing red light level

The New York Times reports today that the world has officially warmed by more than 1.5°C. This is based on the Copernicus ERA5 estimate for 2024, which I'm unable to confirm because the Copernicus folks won't let me download their annual data unless I register with a 12-character password—which I did—and then respond to an email confirmation—which they refused to send.

However, I can show you the more conventional NASA data:

According to NASA, we're at 1.28°C above the pre-industrial baseline and it will still be a few years before we hit 1.5°C.

How many years? That depends. If you extrapolate from long-term trends it looks like 2037 or so (and around 2050 to hit 2°C). But temps have been skyrocketing recently, and if you extrapolate from that we're only a few years away.

So it's anywhere between now and soon, depending on whose data turns out to be most accurate. Happy New Year.

Facebook
Twitter
Email
Print

Author Of article : Kevin Drum

Read full article