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Politics - January 9, 2025

A different measure of inflation tells us it’s over

A different measure of inflation tells us it’s over

Apparently the Fed has grown a little skeptical of inflation indexes that rely partly on "imputed" measures of things like rent. Instead, they're starting to look at pure market-based indexes:

A different measure of inflation tells us it’s over

This is a 3-month rolling average, partly just to smooth things out and partly because it's my favored measure. In November, the plain old monthly number stood at 1.6%. Core market-based PCE was at 1.4%.

On a year-over year basis, market-based PCE was 2.0% in November. Core market-based PCE was at 2.4%.

If this is truly a better way of measuring underlying inflation, it's yet more evidence that inflation is well and truly over.

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Author Of article : Kevin Drum

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